Posted by
arandomguy on Wednesday, November 08, 2006 11:27:33 AM
I haven't posted since last night about the election results, and a lot has happened since then. For one, Allen is now slightly behind in Virginia, by anywhere from 1000 to 5000 votes, depending on who you ask and consult. However, not all the votes have been counted, and I believe absentee's have not yet been counted either, which could push Allen ahead. Look forward (riiiight) to a month-long recount and election battle coming out of Virginia.
Virginia is important for both sides, because it could be the key race in determining who controls the senate. In Montana, Burns is slightly behind Tester, and it isn't looking like he'll be catching up, though I still have some hope. If Burns loses, then it comes down to Virginia. If Democrats get control of both houses of congress, then there will likely be he11 to pay for the President and his administration.
Pawlenty is now definitively ahead, though only by a very slim margin. It looks like he will be governor of Minnesota for another 4 years, though Hatch has yet to concede (as far as I know). Michelle Bachmann won up in the 6th district, defeating the annoying Patty Wetterling - a woman who previously announced being too liberal for Minnesota.
John Kline beat out Coleen Rowley in my district, the 2nd. That's two holds for Republicans, because Kline is a returning congressman, while Bachmann takes the seat vacated by Mark Kennedy in his failed Senate run. Unfortunately, across the state Republicans lost in several areas, which is extremely unfortunate.
The Minnesota State Senate and State House are now firmly in Democratic hands, which likely means our taxes (property, state, and otherwise) will go up as ridiculous new social programs are implemented. Also, even though the ridiculous transportation amendment now seem to have failed, the democratic legislature will likely try to push something through anyway.
But it is important now for Republicans to get together and discuss what went wrong. What in our message didn't resonate with Americans this time, that has resonated for the past 6 years. It is important that we figure out what went wrong, and fix the problems before 2008, because that election is going to be brutal, and the Republicans must come out on top.
First, I don't blame the American people. It is a persistent democratic tactic to blame those "ignorant American people" when they lose elections. I have great respect for the American people, regardless of who they vote for, and anybody who blames them is an idiot. They are not responsible. The American people are a smart people, and an educated people. They simply made the decision of who they thought would better govern this country. So I refuse to blame them, even though I think their decision is a wrong one, that could end up being harmful for this country.
Second, I don't blame a powerful democratic campaign. They ran decent, even good campaigns in many areas, but they also ran many poor campaigns (and in the case of Hatch or Wetterling, outrightly awful ones). Republicans did the same. As far as campaigning goes, I think the parties are about even, with neither side having an advantage.
Also, I do not think the Republicans lost because the Conservative message doesn't resonate with the American people. The fact is, the only message to successfully win elections in America, is a conservative message. Nixon won on a moderate/conservative platform in 68 and 72. Carter, though he was anything but a conservative, ACTED conservative during the campaign, and deceived the electorate. Reagan speaks for himself, as does Bush 41. Clinton, though not a conservative, wasn't really a hard-line liberal either, and ran on a moderate platform, which is largely why he won. Bush won twice on conservative agendas, and the Republican congress won since 1994 on conservite ideals.
So the Republicans did not lose because the conservative message doesn't resonate. I believe the conservative message still resonates, but that voters are upset that the Republicans cannot stick to their promises. Newt Gingrich was a genius in 1994 when he seized the election for Republicans. Unfortunately, in the last 12 years, Republicans have drifted further and further away from the conservative message they won on, and voters have had enough. The Democrats, at least in theory, provide something new.
I believe the Republicans lost this election because they did not stick to their conservative message. Going forward, the Republicans have two choices. 1) They abandon the conservative message, and become more like the Democrats. This would be political suicide. First, they wouldn't be able to retake control, because they would be indistinguishable from Democrats, which would give existing Democrats no reason to change. Secondly, the conservative base would totally abandon them, and with it, all hope for Republicans of winning elections.
The second viable options for the Republicans, is to do another "Contract with America." It should be a reasonably sized document that outlines the Republican plan for the next 2 years following the 2008 elections. It should retain conservative principles of smaller government, less government spending, and victory in the war on terror.
And Bush shares some of the responsibility. Anger about the Iraq war is huge in this country, and may have cost the Republicans this election. This is because the Bush administration has done a disgraceful PR job about this war, telling the American people what the threat we face is, why we are in Iraq, why we must win, and what comes next. On my radio show, which I give for my university's radio station, I outlined a good justification for the war in Iraq. The problem was, I've never heard the President - the man people trust to prosecute this war correctly - say anything remotely close to what I spoke, the one exception being the Axis of Evil speech, in which he vaguely spoke about many of the points I used to justify Iraq. Bush never brought them up again, and the American people have forgotten. This is understandable, because most Americans aren't politically interested like I am (thank god, otherwise, this would be an awful place to live).
In conclusion, the Republicans must solidify their conservative message if they wish to win. Look at the important democratic victories this cycle. Almost NO far left liberal democrats smashed their conservative opponents. Most democratic gains came from so-called "conservative democrats," who are in reality, marginally more moderate than Nancy Pelosi (who in turn, is only marginally more moderate then Karl Marx). This proves my point about the conservative message, and emphasizes what Republicans must do to win more elections in the future, particularly 2008 when the stakes are much higher.
So, though there is cause to be dissapointed, there is not yet cause for despair. I think the Republicans can yet pull it off, and successfully take back the house, and possibly the Senate come 2008, as well as win another 4 years of the presidency, if they nominate the right candidates, campaign right, and outline the important conservative positions that the Republican Party (is supposed to) stand for.