Posted by
arandomguy on Thursday, January 04, 2007 6:56:14 PM
I wrote this essay while I was in a thinking mood. The essay is about the Iraq War, through the context of Vietnam. It will attempt to show that Iraq is becoming more and more like Vietnam every month, but not for the reasons you expect.
1) It is not the fault of the soldiers, or the commanders, who across the board do an excellent job.
2) It is not because either the Vietnam War, or the Iraq war, is unwinnable. They are.
3) It is not because of an anti-War media, or any other form of anti-War movement.
4) It IS because the politicians do not know how to prosecute a war properly, and did not learn the necessary lessons during the Vietnam War.
This may (again) put me on the lunatic fringe. Sorry if this gets a bit long, but I have not posted in awhile and I am good and ready to vent for a bit. Just bear with me, because I think all of you - leftists, as well as conservatives like me - will find my post at least interesting, if not entirely agreeable.
I begin with a bit of history, concerning the Vietnam War. The Vietnam War had been fought on a large scale since 1965. It would continue to be fought on a large scale for 7 years, until the last major battle in 1972. Yes, the war was fought longer with limited involvement, but the number of troops in 1963 (16,000), compared with the number in 1965 (nearly 450,000) easily shows when wide-scale US involvement began. This is undisputed, but is necessary to explain the historical context from which I base this entire post - and most importantly, the argument contained therein.
It is widely shown that presidents (since the Korean War in 1950-1953) have a limit on the amount of deaths they can have allowed, after which the American people will turn against the war. This number is approximately 15,000 deaths. This was prophesized well before Vietnam, but Johnson's generals reminded him of that fact right after Tonkin, when ground forces began invading. Many of his top commanders told him that in order to successfully win the Vietnam War, two things need to happen. The American people needed to keep faith in the war effort and in the government, and the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong must be killed because they are our enemies.
This 15,000-death limit was true. The American people supported the war in a great deal until mid to late 1967, the point when casualties reached 15,000. After this, the war went to hell in a hen basket, and the American people lost almost all support for the war. Again, this point is undisputed, but provides a general (and important) historical context from which to understand my argument. It also is interesting when we examine the Iraq war, and find that we are still some 12,000-odd deaths away from total withdrawal of support (though because of other exacerbating factors, this number will likely be done away with in favor of a much smaller number).
The anti-war crowd during Vietnam was an amalgamation of many different groups. First (and most publicly), you have the hippies, the counter-culture, and the students and radical leftists, who were against the war because they consider themselves - falsely I might add - as pacifists or communist sympathizers (or just like to complain about US "imperialism.") Despite what many claim, this group had little to no power - in fact, they actually turned off many moderate Americans who were starting to lose support for the war.
The second, and most notable group, was the moderates in America. These people supported the war initially - through fear of communist aggression, which I would argue was a founded (and proven) fear, though this is beyond the scope of this post - and began to lose support as casualties mounted and the Tet offensive showed that the government wasn't telling "the whole truth and nothing but the truth." These people supported the wars goals generally, but when things started turning ugly, decided that, though noble, the goals were not worth the hassles it was causing back at home. This movement had influence in the 1968 elections, and is largely what Nixon used to gain election (and again in 1972).
The final, and the one that is most relevant here today, is the conservative crowd that began to turn against the war. Conservatives supported both the wars goals, and the wars objectives. They feared the spread of communism, and did not want to give the Soviets a victory in the hellhole that is Indochina (rightly, I would argue). What the conservatives were upset about was the PROSECUTION of the war, which they felt was being run by a bunch of idiots who did not have the guts, or the willpower to fight the war as it should be fought.
This was led by a man named William F. Buckley Jr. (Bill Buckley). He wrote an editorial for the National Review in 1969, entitled "Go all out or get the hell out." It was about the Vietnam War, and explained why the United States should use every weapon we had in our arsenal - up to and possibly including tactical nukes - to destroy the Viet Minh and Viet Cong, or leave because casualties were mounting. It was an important turning point, because it was one of the first illustrated casesd of a conservative turning against the war, not for moral reasons, but because they were sick of accomplishing nothing.
What Buckley's main point was, is that sitting around and "staying the course," as President Bush has put it before, accomplishes nothing except costing America the "most valuable commodity she has, the American soldier." Wars are not won by standing around. The difference between World War I and World War II proves this point. During WWI, the armies stood around and were in a stalemate for 3.5 years. During WWII, Hitler's Blitzkrieg overran Europe in a matter of months. That is, they overran Western Europe. Eastern Europe was another story. Hitler made many advances while he was still operating under Blitzkrieg. When winter came, and the sieges began, this mobile war was abandoned in favor of a more WWI-style operation. As a result, a stalemate ensued for nearly 3 years, during which millions died.
The prevailing ideology of war amongst the two most important Vietnam presidents - Johnson and Nixon - was that the US should "match" their opponent blow for blow - and hence begin a war of attrition. What Nixon and Johnson did not count on was that the North Vietnamese did not want to compromise. They had been revolutionaries their entire lives, and were not going to suddenly stop. Thus merely trying to "wait out" the enemy, as Johnson and Nixon tried to do, would be ultimately unsuccessful, and would lead to the further loss of American lives.
You cannot secure victory in any war, let alone a guerilla war, by matching your opponent. You must use overpowering force - almost everything at your disposal - to go in, defeat the enemy, and win the war. The mistake of Johnson and Nixon was that they tried to fight a war in which the North Vietnamese lost. They did not try to fight a war that the United States would WIN. And therein lays the problems of Vietnam and - through simple analysis - the problems with the Iraq war today, a topic I will explore in depth later.
Yet during Vietnam, Johnson would send 500,000 soldiers to Vietnam, and then not allow them to shoot at targets. They could not bomb VC targets in South Vietnam, and could not blast the Ho Chi Minh trail in Cambodia and Laos - which they were using to move goods into South Vietnam (SV). Nixon eventually authorized the bombing of these two countries - but only in a limited scale, only if it were "light bombing," and only if Nixon personally approved the targets (not likely). By this point (1970/1971), it was too late to make a difference, and actually proved counter-intuitive as it turned more American's against the war. Indeed, the "do not bomb" list given to pilots was longer than the "bomb" list of targets. The arbitrary rules the politicians put on the army and their commanders led to confusion, loss of life, and an inability by the soldiers to do their job - win the war.
What Buckley, and eventually many other conservatives would come to understand, is that the Vietnam War could not be won after 5 years of fighting. By 1970, it was too late. Public opinion was solidly against the war (though for various reasons), and the effect of wide-scale total war would be severely dampened at such late date. Furthermore, fighting a limited war was worthless because it was only getting more American's killed, and it was not killing the enemy fast enough to warrant continued stay. Additionally, it was too late to begin a total war, because the stamina to do so did not exist as it had at the beginning of the war.
General Westmoreland asked for 200,000 more troops, and Buckley said they should be denied to him. Buckley's point was that there were already plenty of troops. Furthermore, US Airpower was so far advanced that the Vietnamese could put little or no challenge to it under many circumstances. There were enough men and material in Vietnam to get the job done, the problem was the politicians (and to a lesser extent, some of the generals) WOULD NOT DO THE JOB.
Adding 200,000 to the existing 550,000 in 1969 would have made 750,000 targets for the VC to shoot at. Since casualties were already high, and soldiers were not allowed to fight like proper soldiers, this would only create more targets and stem further casualties. Buckley's point was that this is an endless cycle that ends in defeat for the United States, weakening of our world power and prestige, as well as our government, and will contribute to the advancement and increased power of our enemies.
Buckley was right. We did not add the troops, but we did not change the policy either. What happened? We lost. Ho Chi Minh took over both halves of Vietnam, and combined them into a communist dictatorship that regularly subjugates its citizens. Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge showed up in Cambodia, and killed everything that moved. The Soviets, through the rest of the 70's and the early 80's saw themselves put in a new position of power in Southeast Asia as well as the rest of the world. The United States saw itself weakened, some effects of which still linger to this day (check up on the "Vietnam Syndrome" that affects our politicians even today).
It is necessary now to examine precisely how the Vietnam War was lost. I believe, as the evidence suggests, that the politicians share almost all of the blame. It was because of their restrictions on the military, their misunderstanding of the nature of the war, and their poor strategic decisions (as well as micromanagement of the war) that the soldiers in Vietnam could not do what they were trained to do - kill the enemy and win the war. They did not bring Vietnam to its knees, as they should have in the early stages of the war - to set the stage for things to come. The Christmas bombing of North Vietnam proved that wide-scale bombing leads to defeat of the North Vietnamese. Yet this was undertook at such a late date that the political will to maintain the bombing was not there, forcing the operation to a halt. The NV's were almost ready to give in, and nearly told us so during negotiations. If such operations had been undertaken in the first years of the war, it would have ended much quicker.
Thus, the loss for the war can be attributed to three factors, ranked in order of importance.
1) The inability by the politicians to wage a total war against the enemy, destroy him, and fight for Victory.
2) The decision by the politicians to wage a limited war.
3) The inability of the politicians to understand how the war should be fought.
4) The inability of the politicians to keep the American people informed of developments in Vietnam, and to explain the stakes and the situation (think FDR and "Fireside chats."
The parallels to our current conflict - Iraq - should seem obvious at this point. Before I continue with the meat and the crux of my argument, let me first explain that I was for the war in its initial phases. I was for the war then, and I am still for the war. I support the goals we need to achieve, and I believe they are necessary if we want to avert further - and much more deadly - conflict in the future. Yet I do not support the handling of this war by the government, because they have shown they are unable to get the job done, which is the essence of my argument today. I also am very frustrated that the politicians learned nothing from Vietnam. Vietnam could have been a victory, if the politicians controlling the Army wished to FIGHT for victory. They did not fight for victory, and instead fought to make the enemy lose, a self-defeating strategy that will not work (particularly in the case of guerilla warfare).
First, the war is quickly approaching the 5 year (of sustained involvement) mark, which Vietnam reached in 1969/1970. Casualties in Vietnam were mounting, as are casualties in Iraq. (Taking into account the scale of involvement, casualties in Iraq are currently at 2%, whereas in Vietnam, casualties were 11%. This however does not take into account the fact that the Iraq war is still ongoing). It was at this point that most of the legitimacy of the Vietnam War was lost on the American people. Moreover, it will be the point from which the United States loses its remaining support for the Iraq war. The polls, I believe, show that most people disapprove of Bush's handling of the war (rightly so). Yet it does not show that most people think the war is WRONG. They approve of the goals, yet do not like how those goals are being achieved (or not achieved as the case may be).
The second parallel is the strategy and incompetence of our top leadership. The plan in Iraq was "Shock & Awe." This was a good idea (in Vietnam too), but the politicians (as expected) did not have the guts or willpower to carry out what they said. Yes, we shocked and awed the Iraq standing ARMY - Saddam's Republican guard and the rest. Yet we did not shock and awe the terrorists - our real enemies, and the far greater threat in the area. They were there, but we failed in our attempt to subjugate and destroy them immediately - something that is a NECESSITY if we are to win this war. Now we have to deal with daily violence, sectarian violence, and an almost-civil-war in Iraq with our soldiers caught in the crossfire.
After the invasion, our president continually told us to stay the course. This is as casualties were mounting, and the WMD were not found. Why President Bush ever bothered with WMD in the first place is beyond me. It is a pointless issue, and is beyond the topic of this post (I will stipulate on this. Bush was stupid). Is it not understandable why people slowly began to lose support for the war? They did not see anything being accomplished. Note that I too think the WMD were in Iraq, and that they were just sent to Syria (as Saddam's generals have publicly testified to), but it was stupid of Bush to rest the crux of the invasion argument on WMD.
Yes, there were some major accomplishments. The capture of Saddam, the death of Al-Zarqawi, the first, second, and third Iraqi elections etc. Yet these did not offset the growing strife about rising casualties. People (myself included) began wondering why the war was not being won, and why it was not being fought, as it should. Furthermore, to those who kept a watchful eye (myself included) it was clear that "staying the course" and "shock and awe" had some serious problems - mainly that the government wasn't able to carry out what it needed to do in order to win. Winning is not impossible. It is difficult (particularly against terrorist guerillas) but not impossible. It requires vigilance, and the persistent attack on terrorist strongholds. It requires massive, wide-scale bombing of suspected terrorist hideouts, and quick infiltration of any perceived threat. It requires the neutralization of as many terrorists as possible as quickly as possible. Anything less will only serve to foster the "insurgency".
The final parallel is the call by the politicians for more troops. Westmoreland and Johnson were calling for more troops. Nixon vetoed this rightly, but Johnson would have granted it (he said as much) if he had won the election. President Bush is likely going to start calling for 20,000 - 50,000 more troops in Iraq (and many Democrats support him, as do the Republicans). They should be denied to Bush, just as they were denied to Westmoreland. I believe Bush has enough troops to get the job done, if he has the willpower and the knowledge to do so. Yet I do not think he does, and as a result, Iraq is headed down the same path as Vietnam was a generation ago.
We need now, to reconsider the advice of Buckley. It was not heeded during Vietnam - a conflict with so many parallels - good and bad - to today's conflict. What happened? His predictions came unmistakably true, and still hurt us to this day (as Buckley predicted). I am not claiming that Buckley is the messiah, or a prophet or anything. I am however, claiming that he had a good idea in Vietnam, and it can be easily adapted to fit our current conflict. Buckley's advice was that the increase in troops should be denied because it creates more targets.
This is true. It creates more targets, and our "stay the course" strategy will only serve to INCREASE casualties, while at the same time failing to DECREASE the terrorist threat. Unless drastic changes in policy are undertaken, and done so within the next few weeks, no increase in troops will have much affect on the "insurgency." It did not work in Vietnam (we had over 500,000), so why do we think it will work here?
Buckley also recommended using every weapon at our disposal. I will not go that far (yet) because we do not live during the Cold War anymore, and nukes are not a commonly used weapon of intimidation. Yet we must use everything else - conventional explosives, intelligence, etc to brutally go after the islamofascists before they can kill US soldiers. We must bomb terrorist strongholds. We must bomb suspected terrorist strongholds.
Al Sadr must be taken out because he is totally opposed to US interests in the region, has the backing and support of Iran and Ahmadinejad, and fosters much of the Shia insurgency in the region that is so devastating to US soldiers as well as Sunni Muslims. Shock and Awe must be brought back vigorously, as we attempt to destroy the terrorist threat by destroying the terrorists. We must stop pussyfooting around and get the job done, because the stakes are high and the consequences are grave. Buckley explained what the consequences would be for loss in Vietnam. The consequences in Iraq are similar, but much much worse. In Vietnam, we were not dealing with a country that wanted to dominate and subjugate America, and that wanted to kill American citizens. We are this time, and our enemy has proven his ability to do what he wishes and claims. As such, the need for our victory is illustrated.
Buckley said, "Go all out or get the hell out." Buckley was right in 1969 when he wrote this, and he is right today. I hate to admit it, but Iraq is looking more and more like Vietnam every day. Casualties mount, tactics and strategy do not change, and our politicians interfere too much in allowing the generals to do their job. Our soldiers have too many rules that prevent them from killing the terrorists that are killing them. Our soldiers cannot go after the men who are most responsible for the "insurgency" like Al Sadr and his band of Nazi's.
We lost the Vietnam War because of political incompetence at the highest echelons of our government. This is showing to be truer of this conflict as well. Our politicians are unable to fight a war (and should not be expected to. That is the job of the generals). This is not a surprise, but it is a surprise, and an aggravating one, that they think they can do so. Every attempt by politicians to affect the outcome and conduct of a war has resulted in a loss, a stalemate, or a disaster. Never a victory. You would think the politicians would have learned their lessons, but clearly, they have not.
We need to go all out in Iraq and get the job done, or all is lost in the region. We cannot hang around forever, and the Iraqi's must begin to stand up for themselves. Yes the process is slow, but rebuilding can commence once the necessary amount of destruction (a painful necessity of war I am afraid) has been completed and most of the Islamo-Nazi's have been eliminated. We must also tell the Iraqi government that we do not have forever to stand around and be shot at. They need to get things in gear and include the Sunni's in the oil profits, or they will not see US support. Charles Krauthammer had a good idea when he suggested we give them 3 months to get it in gear, or withdraw all our troops to Kurdistan and let the bastards kill each other. This ultimatum should be given to Al-Maliki today, and the Iraqi government should start turning around tomorrow.
We are quickly approaching the point from which Iraq will be a total loss. I do not believe it is a total loss yet, because with hard work and the right leadership, it can still be turned into a victory. We must act - for purposes of warmaking - as though the war has not yet begun, and we must start over with the total-war approach that worked in World War II, worked in Korea, and, in the limited circumstances on which it was applied, worked in Vietnam. It will work again. We must attack the enemy in his stronghold and destroy him before he destroys us. The alternative is the loss of more American lives.
There are too many arbitrary rules in Iraq (like Vietnam). The soldiers are not allowed to do their job - kill the enemy. Some of the same problems exist - forbidden targets, forbidden zones, rules that almost totally prevent a soldier from firing his or her weapon. These all existed in Vietnam, and look at the result. A military and political catastrophe. Iraq cannot turn out to be like Vietnam because the stakes are much higher, and the consequences much greater.
It is particularly amazing to me that people like Moqtada Al-Sadr are allowed to live, despite openly fomenting violence against the United States' forces in Iraq, and openly waging Jihad against both the Iraqi government, and the United States. This type of activity should not be allowed, and he should be destroyed. He SHOULD have been destroyed a long time ago, in the pre-invasion attacks, but he was not. It is not too late to correct our mistake, but time is running out. Sadr has too much a stake in the government, and when we leave, will pressure the leadership into selling out to the Iranians - the very reason the United States is in Iraq in the first place - to approach and counter Iran's advances in the region, as well as their development of nuclear power.
Thus, the first option is to shape up, pretend this war has just begun, and wage a total war on our enemies that results in total destruction of the forces that oppose us. The soldiers we have should be used in the most efficient and effective manner. The air force and the military warplanes should have enough juice (when coupled with tons of US high-explosive ordinance) to destroy targets from the air - "forbidden" targets as well. We must wage a total war that destroys the terrorists that are killing us, or we will lose this war. Simply "staying the course" has not worked, is not working, and will not work. That is not to say we are losing. We are not. We have made many inroads in the region, and have killed many jihadists. Yet we are not WINNING either, and this is what ultimately cost us the Vietnam War. We did not LOSE in Vietnam, so much as "fail to win." We are making the same mistake in Iraq, and the result (not surprisingly) will be the same, but with greater consequences for our loss.
The only other option is simply to leave. It will cause gross instability in the region, and contribute to a Super-Iran, something that should be avoided (I would think) at all costs. Yet it still may allow America to retain SOME of the credibility she has, though we would lose all our strength (and therein lays the paradox – do we sacrifice credibility for victory, or victory for credibility?). If we continue on a "stay-the-course" strategy, we WILL lose disgracefully as we did in Vietnam. If we change policy, we will most likely WIN as we did in Korea or World War II in the pacific. Winning would bolster our prestige and credibility. Losing would diminish it greatly. Getting our @sses handed to us would destroy us, and this would be bad for the world because we would have shown ourselves unable to successfully combat the terrorist threat.
The consequences of pulling immediately out of Iraq have been discussed and debated endlessly. Because this is the platform of the Democrats and the leftists, Conservatives like myself have long spoken against fixed withdrawl dates, pulling out before the job was done, and have long outlined the consequences of immdiate “redeployment” as the current amelioration goes. Yet ultimately, we must have a fair analysis here. In Vietnam, we stayed the course for 10 years, and nothing happened. The result of the Vietnam War, was to decrease the population of Vietnam by a couple million, and that’s really about it. Don’t get me wrong – pulling out of Vietnam was a terrible idea. We should have waged a total war then, as we should now. Yet even we as conservatives need to understand that standing around and letting our troops get shot is exactly what Nixon and Johnson did during Vietnam, and Iraq is becoming more and more like Vietnam.
The reason that pulling out is better than “staying the course” is again, illustrated by a Vietnam comparison. If we hadn’t stuck around in Vietnam (Buckley wrote his editorial in 1969, when casualties were at 30,000), those remaining 28,000 people wouldn’t have died. What did those last 6 years accomplish? Nothing.
So the problem with Iraq is thus: We win the war now, or we pull out soon. The alternative, is to stand around and get shot some more, and then pull out when a Democrat next becomes president, or when Republicans finally understand that stay-the-course led to our defeat.
My main point in this article, and what I hope you readers learn from it, is that stay-the-course is a self-defeating method of warmaking. It leads to one thing, and one thing only. Defeat. Defeat of America is not something we stand for as conservatives, nor should it be something any self-respecting American stands for. Yet, as we have seen, this is what stay the course amounts to.
Total war must be waged, to prevent total defeat. There is no alternative.
Buckley's advice though painful and disgraceful (to our government and politicians) is accurate and should be heeded. Before we hit the 5-year mark in 07/08, we MUST have a drastic change in tactics. The troops Bush is calling for - 20 - 50 thousand - should be denied him. He should be told, "Get the job done, or leave." He should be told, "Go all out or get the hell out."
This is what SHOULD have been done at the beginning. It is what I believed the United States was prepared to do at the beginning, though obviously I have been proven wrong. Staying the course is not working and it did not work in Vietnam. We can see what the result in Vietnam was. In this conflict, with higher stakes, bigger prices, and the stability of not just one country, but several entire continents at risk, can we REALLY afford to go down that same path?
Let us hope our politicians learn and do not send us down that road to our loss, our defeat, our disgrace and our doom.
Nevertheless, they will because they are politicians, and they do not understand the necessities and harshness of war, and because they do not understand what MUST be done to win the war.
Enjoy.