If you stick to reading the MSM, you will hear story after story about Democratic prospects for this election cycle, and you'll hear story after story about why the Republicans are going to lose. You hear stories that the Republican base is upset. You hear stories about swing voters and moderates being upset. And you hear stories about the unpopularity of the Iraq war, and that this will hurt Bush.

I look at the headlines spread all across the MSM, and I can't see much of anything, except a continuous stream of propaganda for the DFL. I read a story from Reuters today, that cited 4 different polls, all of them just totally anti-Republican. One poll says Republicans will lose 30 seats. Another closer to 50.

Most MSM sources seem convinced that Democrats will retake the house, and possibly the Senate. Perhaps it is my optimism (yeah, right), or perhaps it is something else, but I do not feel the same as all these MSM sources. I don't think Republican prospects are really all that bad. Republican's are behind in some races, but ahead in others. I really don't think these midterms are going to be that astonishing. Maybe the Republicans will lose 5 or 10 seats. Maybe they'll gain 2 or 3. Regardless, I do not see the Democrats in control of the Senate.

The Democrats are certainly optimistic about their chances. They are going everywhere, and already talking like they've won the election. The only problem is, no votes (except absentee's) have been cast yet, so in my opinion, they're counting the votes too soon. Many Republicans are excellent closers, and at any rate, all the polls said Bush would lose in 2004 as well.

I'm not saying the Republicans are going to win this election. There is much to be upset with them about, regardless of your political philosophy. Conservatives don't like them because they haven't stuck with many of the conservative values they promised. Moderates don't like them because of their partisanship, and sometimes for their support of the war. Liberals don't like them because... they're liberals.

Indeed, the Republicans may lose, and lose badly. What I AM saying however, is that I haven't seen any evidence to support all these stories that Republicans are going to be crushed. However, I also haven't seen much evidence to support stunning Republican victories either, which is why I think that there will be little (if any) change in the makeup of the Senate or House.

This is especially true because Bush is out there mobilizing the disgruntled base, which is extremely important if Republicans are to win this election. Republicans simply do not stand a chance without the Conservative vote, and to anger those of us with conservative beliefs is to commit political suicide.

Luckily, the Bush administration is showing the US (and specifically conservatives) what the stakes are. They are explaining what will happen with a Democratic house. They are explaining the stakes in the war, and how we will lose if Democrats come to power. Finally, they are showing that, despite their discrepancies from conservatism, the Republicans are far more conservative than the Democrats could hope to ever be.

More importantly, even if the Democrats win, the election won't be the historic landslide victory they'll try to claim it as. As Charles Krauthammer pointed out in his editorial today, the average midterm 2nd term loss for a sitting president, is 29 house seats and 7 senate seats. If the Democrats win the most they've been predicted to win - 20 - 25 house seats and 4 - 6 Senate seats - they will still be below average.

Furthermore, Republicans all across the country are picking up in key races. Here at home, Minnesota, our governor Tim Pawlenty is making constant gains in the polls, and I think the latest polls have them at a dead heat. And, since Pawlenty was behind in the polls last time he ran, and won by a reasonable margin, I think this election will be the same. Up in the 6th district, Michelle Bachmann is making a good run, and is almost 10 points ahead of the ultra-liberal Patty Wetterling.

The only race that worries me - at least locally - is the Senate seat in Minnesota. Mark Kennedy has run a good campaign, and seems to me to be a great candidate. Yet the latest polls have Amy Klobuchar up by somewhere between 5 and 10 points, something which I have yet to explain - though liberal media bias will go a long way.

Nationally, Republicans are also experiencing gains. The lastest PEW poll says that the numbers are almost even, between Republicans and Democrats. This illustrates the power of the Republican last-minute effort, and the success of their efforts to energize their base. In Montana, Burns is ahead of his opponent, and in Missouri, Talent is dead even with his. George Allen is pulling ahead in Virginia, and Steele is catching up in Maryland. Corker is making a good run in Tennessee, and I think Republicans will take all of these seats.

I don't think Republicans will lose control of the Senate. I don't really think they'll lose control of the house, but it is difficult to predict at this point. I'm banking that they won't lose the Senate though, because I don't see enough democratic gains in enough important places to really effect the balance of power. If anything, the Republican majority will increase, with the addition of a new Republican senator from New Jersey, one of the only seats Republicans stand a chance to gain in. Furthermore, if Lieberman wins in Connecticut, the Democratic numbers will drop from 44 to 43, provided they remain dead even. If the Republicans pick up one seat, it will drop to 42, putting the numbers at 56 Republicans, 42 Democrats, and 2 independents.

Even if Santorum and DeWine lose (Santorum is in a worse boat here than DeWine, who has been catching up quickly in the last few days), this will put the numbers at 54, 44, and 2, provided most everything else stays the same. If Kennedy can pull it off, the numbers will increase by 1 for the Republicans, making the majority 55, 43, and 2.

What's most important, is that EVERYBODY get out and vote for the candidates in your district. The Republicans need your help now more than ever, and every vote will count. With the possible exception of Lincoln Chaffee - you can decide whether to vote for him or not - every Conservative should vote for the Republican candidates, because a vote for any Democrat is a vote for Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Ted Kennedy, and other Senate loonies.