Posted by
arandomguy on Monday, November 06, 2006 11:51:12 PM
There is troubling news coming out of Nicaragua. The deposed revolutionary marxist leader Daniel Ortega, ejected from power in 1990 thanks to the first Bush Administration, and the previous efforts of the Reagan administration, has likely won the election to be his country's president.
Ortega, likely took 40% of the vote, which, though not a majority, would give him a plurality, and make him the president. In the system down there, the candidate who gets more votes then all the other candidates wins. Ortega likely has 7 points more than the second place candidate, and will hence become president once the election results are released later this week.
This is a very interesting and troubling development. Ortega asserts that he is a changed man, but I'm inclined to doubt it. One does not simply "change" from revolutionary marxism. Though admittedly, he won power somewhat-legitimately this time, I don't believe he is a changed man. He is just as revolutionary, and just as much a communist now, as he was when he first took power in the 1980's.
Though, with the fall of the Soviet Union, there are few allies left for communist regimes any more. China is reluctant to back countries in other parts of the world, for fear of alienating the US. No other communist nation is strong or powerful enough to back weaker South American nations, and so the possibilities of international backing are very slim. This should help to keep Ortega in line, though it may not work.
There are however, worse allies than Communists. Terrorists are worse. Drug runners are worse. If Ortega allies himself with these types, he will likely be as much a problem as he was in the 1980's. And this is my big concern about this problem. Will Ortega ally himself with the wrong people? My guess is probably. As I said, revolutionary marxists don't simply change overnight - or over sixteen years. I find it very hard to believe that Ortega has changed his politics much. Perhaps he has mellowed out somewhat, but his politics are the same.
We also have to fear that he will seize power. Nicaraguan law currently holds that a president cannot hold consecutive terms. However, Venezuelan "president" Hugo Chavez has said that he wants to change his country's election laws allowing him to serve longer. What's to say that Ortega won't do the same in Nicaragua? Nothing.
It is a dangerous and potentially volatile situation, and one which the US should keep a close eye on during the next few months (and years). We should be careful of developments in the region that may lead to terrorist attacks on US soil, or an increase in drug smuggling.